Porsche Consulting this week updated its earlier 2018 assessment of the urban air mobility market, publishing a new study that tempers what the company seems to view as somewhat overhyped expectations for commercial air taxi services using new eVTOL aircraft. In short, the German-based automotive group believes eVTOLs will become a significant part of the public transportation landscape over the next 15 years, but does not see them as being a be-all-and-end-all solution.

“Large parts of the population could then [over the next 15 years] use them like today’s taxis,” says the new report’s author Gregor Grandl, a senior partner with Porsche Consulting. “However air taxis alone cannot solve the current and future problems associated with traffic and transport, because their development and market success are linked to considerable risk and hurdles of both a technical and commercial nature.”

Pointing to lingering doubts about regulations covering the new aircraft and the challenges around establishing supporting infrastructure, Grandl concluded that for eVTOLs to represent “a relevant share” of the urban transportation market by 2035, at least half a million passengers will need to use them every day, requiring between 1,000 and 2,500 locations to takeoff and land across around 60 cities worldwide.

The report projects the value of the “vertical mobility” market at around $32 billion by 2035 while pointing out that for this to be achieved investments totaling $20 billion will need to be made by the industry and its stakeholders. Reflecting on front-runner eVTOL aircraft developers’ ambitions to be operating the first commercial services by 2025, Porsche says a further $10 billion spend will be required for development work on the new models.

“Vertical mobility can develop into a lucrative niche area,” concluded Grandl. “But if air taxis are to become a reality for everyone, courageous pioneers with persistence, deep pockets, and a sense of responsibility will be needed. Safety and social acceptance will also play huge roles.”

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